Takaichi adviser Takuji Aida said the BoJ is likely to hike in September and keep a quarterly pace until January next year, then roughly every six months, Reuters stamps. Markets have nearly fully priced +25bp to 1.25% for the Sept 17–18 meeting.
The Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates in September and keep hiking at a pace of once every quarter until January next year, Takuji Aida, an economic adviser to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, said Monday, Reuters reported (Leika Kihara; TOKYO, Sept 7). Aida — chief Japan economist at Credit Agricole, a member of the government’s key economic panel, and a known reflationist seen as among the most vocal opponents of BoJ rate hikes — said he was pushing forward his forecast of the next increase from January 2027, as September offered a narrow window before an extraordinary Diet session convenes in early October.
After the September hike, the BoJ will likely follow with another increase by January next year, Aida said in a research note. “After that, the BOJ will revert to a hike of around once every six months.” Separately on the same wire: “The premature, accelerated pace of rate hikes would weigh on the economy.”
Markets have nearly fully priced a 25 basis-point rise in the policy rate to 1.25% at the next meeting on September 17–18, the same Reuters page says. Prospect of a September hike heightened after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent last week kept calling for higher BoJ rates and voiced strong support for “decisive” monetary steps against yen weakness. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said last week the bank will debate raising rates including in September, with a focus on whether inflationary risks were heightening. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama has repeated that monetary-policy decisions are the central bank’s responsibility.
Germany’s July industrial production miss (−1.1%) is a separate Destatis print — distinct from this Japan BoJ-path note.
Informational only. Not trading advice, signals, or a guarantee of any market outcome.
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German industrial production fell 1.1% m/m sa/ca in July, Destatis said, missing a Primary consensus +0.1% forecast. June was revised to 0.0% from provisional +0.2%. Autos fell 9.2% on a VDA multi-week pause.
WTI hovers around $90.00 in Asian hours Monday on weekend US–Iran escalation, desk stamps. A separate Sunday OPEC+ October-hold page quotes WTI at $92.57. Both stamps are quoted; they are not averaged.
CENTCOM struck three IRGC crude carriers on 5 September after ballistic missiles toward two US Navy ships. Adm. Brad Cooper set the cost message. Reuters stamps Tehran’s counterclaim on Hormuz routes. Iran’s Rezaei flagged a new restricted maritime zone — attributed claims only.