BoJ Sep Hike to 1.25% Nearly Consensus in Reuters Poll; Masu Says Continue Raising Rates

A Reuters poll and remarks from Bank of Japan board member Kazuyuki Masu on Thursday reinforced expectations the BoJ will keep lifting rates, with September’s move to 1.25% now near consensus.

Reuters poll path

CNA (TOKYO, Sept 10; updated ~06:11 SGT) and a parallel Asia wrap stamp the September 1–8 Reuters survey:

• All but two of 68 economists (~97%) expected the BoJ to raise rates on September 18, up from 57% in a previous poll.
• 24 of 66 economists anticipated another hike to 1.50% in either October or December — roughly double the August share.
• Around 62% saw the policy rate reaching at least 1.75% by the end of Q2 2027, three months earlier than predicted in August’s poll.
• One wrap stamps 82% of economists saying the joint US–Japan yen-buying intervention and remarks by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had “significantly” or “somewhat” lowered political barriers for rate hikes. CNA frames the same finding as more than 80% of respondents — quoted separately, not averaged.

CNA also stamps 89% of analysts (57 of 64) see the policy rate reaching at least 1.50% by end-March next year, up from 65% last month.

Masu

BoJ policy board member Kazuyuki Masu said the central bank expected to continue raising interest rates given current accommodative financial conditions. Pace and timing will be decided on the likelihood of achieving baseline projections as well as risks, with an eye on oil-price moves, AI demand, and foreign-exchange fluctuations. Underlying inflation is still below 2% but quite close to that level; the most important thing is to avoid underlying inflation from overshooting sharply from 2%.

USD/JPY / prior BoJ tape

USD/JPY was up 0.05% on the day at 153.60 at the time of writing. Follows Takaichi adviser Aida’s Sep-hike / quarterly path, already pricing September to 1.25%.

Also see: AUD/JPY Extends Losing Streak to Fourth Day Near 110.70 on ME Risk Aversion.

Informational only. Not trading advice, signals, or a guarantee of any market outcome.