
July FOMC Minutes at 23:30 IST. The Vote Was 9-3. The Path Is Softer.
Fed releases July FOMC minutes at 23:30 IST. July 28-29 hold at 3.50-3.75%, 9-3. Hammack, Kashkari, Logan wanted +25bp. CME FedWatch as of 19 Aug: 65.4% September hold.
Reuters citing Kpler: 6 commodity ships through Hormuz on Tuesday 18 Aug, down from 9 Monday, vs a 10-day average of 11. Iran says closed. Trump says open, no talks. Oil stamps disagree; they are not averaged.

Six commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. That is down from 9 on Monday, and below a 10-day average of 11. Reuters, citing preliminary Kpler data in Wednesday’s reprint, is the stamp. This is not a reopening.
Inbound traffic that day included an empty very large crude carrier on the Omani side and two tankers. Two medium-range fuel tankers and a post-Panamax vessel exited. The 12 August FXStreet count of 14 ships, with none on the central passage, is last week’s Tuesday. It is not this week’s.
FXStreet’s Wednesday wrap had Iran’s top negotiator repeating that Hormuz stays closed until Washington meets the conditions of the now-expired interim deal. Trump said on social media the waterway is open and operating and that no talks with Tehran are scheduled. A vessel was reported struck by an unknown projectile in the strait the same day.
Do not write the strait back open. The political lines still disagree.
Monday’s first Kpler print, via Reuters on Tuesday, was also 6 commodity ships, 3 in and 3 out, with 0 VLCC and 0 LNG on that list. The VLGC Xavia entered ballast on the Iranian route. Wednesday’s reprint revises Monday to 9. Weekend on that Tuesday Reuters: 3 Saturday, 2 Sunday. Transponders off are not in the tally.
The same waterway is carrying different prices this week. They stay as stamps.
| Stamp | Source | |
|---|---|---|
| Monday settle | WTI $84.50, Brent $90.87 | WSJ via Iran International |
| Tuesday wrap | WTI eased toward $84 | FXStreet, Forex Today, 18 Aug |
| Wednesday Europe | Brent climbed above $91/b; Dutch TTF hit €64/MWh | KBC via FXStreet, 19 Aug |
The 12 August Gibson note still sitting in FXStreet related links, Brent $87 and WTI $81, is that week’s tape. It is not Wednesday’s.
KBC also had the June memorandum, including a truce extension, expiring Monday. Vortexa, in the same Wednesday Reuters reprint, said two Chinese majors that had moved about half of China’s Middle East oil have kept tankers off Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb since late July.
The count to watch is still the central passage and the first VLCC with cargo. Tuesday’s empty VLCC on the Omani side is not that print. Until a laden crude line shows, oil is priced for a reopening the ships have not made.
Live energy is on prices. The calendar is on the economic calendar.
Informational only. Not trading advice, signals, or a guarantee of any market outcome.
Written and fact-checked with AI assistance, reviewed by a human editor before publication.
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Fed releases July FOMC minutes at 23:30 IST. July 28-29 hold at 3.50-3.75%, 9-3. Hammack, Kashkari, Logan wanted +25bp. CME FedWatch as of 19 Aug: 65.4% September hold.

US July housing starts 1.239 million vs 1.34 million expected, −12.4% on the month. Permits rose. 30-year yield had printed 5.33%.

China July IP 4.5% vs 5.0% expected, retail 0.6% vs 1.5%, FAI −6.7%. NZD slipped below 0.5900. AUD held the low-0.7100s.