July FOMC Minutes at 23:30 IST. The Vote Was 9-3. The Path Is Softer.

The Federal Reserve releases the minutes of the July 28–29 meeting at 23:30 IST. That is the only high-impact US print left Wednesday. The decision is already known: funds held at 3.50–3.75% on a 9-3 vote.

Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie K. Logan wanted +25bp. Coinpedia names those three. They argued inflation was still too high and that energy could keep it above the 2% target.

KBC says hawkish text. The September path has faded.

KBC’s Market Research Desk said the minutes “could be a hawkish read as more Fed governors than the three official dissenters probably backed a rate hike.” That is the shop line. It is not the vote.

The same note said the path into the next meeting “dwindled last week following weak payrolls and tame inflation data.” CME FedWatch, as of 19 August on Growbeansprout’s reprint, prints a 65.4% chance the September meeting holds. Coinpedia put 32.8% hike and 67.2% hold on September. That pair is the December cumulative on an 18 August CME wire (September there was 65% hold / 35% hike). Do not use Coinpedia’s September print.

The next FOMC is a two-day meeting on 15–16 September. The statement is due 16 September at 14:00 ET, per the Federal Reserve calendar. KBC wrote “September 17.” That is the slip. The Board page is 15–16.

What the minutes can still move

The nine who held are the watch. If the text shows several of them leaning hike and waiting on data, September stays a live print. If it shows a clean hold camp, the 65.4% is the tape the minutes will have to break.

The Fed has been meeting-by-meeting. Coinpedia’s read is that jobs and inflation still set the next move, not a pre-committed path.

KBC also stamped the Europe session around that hold: front-end support failed to force a second test of EUR/USD 1.16. UK July CPI printed 0.3% m/m and 2.9% y/y, core 2.6%, services 3.4%, and “fail[ed] to inspire UK markets.” That is colour. It is not this note.

Same-day dollar tape, before the minutes: Treasury lifted long-end buybacks to at least $4 billion.

The minutes are out: July Minutes Confirm the 9-3 Hold.

Live dollar pairs are on prices. The Fed stamp is on the economic calendar.

Informational only. Not trading advice, signals, or a guarantee of any market outcome.