July 28–29 minutes: 9-3 hold at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent. Hammack, Kashkari, Logan preferred +25bp. Several participants favored a hike at that meeting. Next FOMC 15–16 September.
The Federal Reserve released the July 28–29 minutes at 14:00 ET. Nine members agreed to keep the funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent. Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie K. Logan voted against. They preferred a 1/4 percentage point increase at that meeting.
That is the vote we already had. The text is the watch.
Most participants supported maintaining the range. Several participants favored a 25 basis point increase at that sitting. They said price pressures looked broad based and that a more restrictive stance was needed to meet the dual mandate on a sustained basis.
Many participants assessed that policy tightening would likely be necessary if inflation did not decline. Some said financial conditions might not be restrictive enough to bring inflation back to 2 percent. A few of those who wanted a hike in July said acting then could forestall a steeper sequence later.
KBC’s hawkish-read was that more than the three named dissenters probably backed a hike. The minutes split that: three members voted against the hold, and several participants — a wider room than the 12 voters — favored +25bp at that meeting. The path language is the second line. Many would tighten if inflation did not come down. That is not a September instruction. The Committee said interpretations of incoming information would set the next move.
At that meeting the manager said investors expected no July action as a base case, with about a one-in-three chance of a hike then. At longer horizons the market was fully pricing a 25 basis point increase by the September meeting, and another by the end of the first quarter of next year. The median Desk-survey respondent expected no change this year or next, and a cut in early 2028.
That September full-price is July tape. It is not today’s 65.4% hold. Do not put Coinpedia’s 32.8/67.2 pair on September. That print is December.
Staff at the meeting had May PCE inflation at 4.1 percent, core 3.4 percent, and estimated June at 3.7 percent total and 3.3 percent core. The unemployment rate was 4.2 percent in June. Inflation risks were seen as skewed to the upside. Risks to employment and GDP were seen as skewed to the downside.
FXStreet’s sole post-minutes last: the dollar index trades around 98.90, still offered. That is the same neighborhood as the Treasury buyback dump, not a spike off ~99.45. The session remains the buyback bid. It is not a minutes reverse.
The minutes close with the next meeting on Tuesday–Wednesday, September 15–16, 2026. The statement is due 16 September. Same-day dollar tape before this release was the long-end buyback size lift. FXStreet’s post-minutes last: the dollar index trades around 98.90, still offered. That is the buyback neighborhood. It is not a minutes reverse. No post-minutes 10-year, 30-year, gold or equity print is on that page.
Live dollar pairs are on prices. The September stamp is on the economic calendar.
Informational only. Not trading advice, signals, or a guarantee of any market outcome.
Written and fact-checked with AI assistance, reviewed by a human editor before publication.
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