
USD/CAD Near 1.3815 as CAD Firms, Oil Extends Rally; FedWatch ~64%
USD/CAD near 1.3815 after a 1.3835 high as the loonie firms and WTI extends near $97.20. FedWatch ~64% chance of a 25 bp hike on this stamp; DXY ~98.96.
EUR/CAD holds around 1.6040 in early European hours Friday after a bullish-gap open as Germany’s July factory orders beat forecasts. Macklem’s hawkish CAD color stays on the tape. NFP still prints later Friday.

EUR/CAD declines after a bullish-gap open and holds around 1.6040 in early European hours on Friday as the euro steadies after Germany’s factory-orders print. That is the Friday 4 September 2026 stamp.
Germany’s July factory orders rose 2.5% month on month, beating a 0.3% forecast, after June’s 3.7% gain. Year on year, orders rose 13.1%, almost twice June’s 7.2%.
Commerzbank, as reprinted there, has Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem underscoring that inflation “remained too high” and that “upside risks had increased due to the conflict in the Middle East and the renewed escalation of the trade dispute with the US,” with higher energy prices able to spill into other goods and services. That is CAD-side force on this cross.
Eurozone retail sales and ECB’s Philip Lane were inbound color on that FO page — Friday’s live EZ Retail miss is the print tape.
EUR/JPY stall after the same FO is the yen-cross FO reaction — distinct from this EUR/CAD hold.
Post-print USD/CAD rise toward 1.3850 is the later CAD session tape — distinct from this EUR/CAD FO hold.
Informational only. Not trading advice, signals, or a guarantee of any market outcome.
Written and fact-checked with AI assistance, reviewed by a human editor before publication.
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USD/CAD near 1.3815 after a 1.3835 high as the loonie firms and WTI extends near $97.20. FedWatch ~64% chance of a 25 bp hike on this stamp; DXY ~98.96.

GBP/USD under pressure near 1.3525 (−0.17%) as hot PPI keeps a September Fed hike in play. FedWatch nearly 70% chance of a 25 bp increase; Brent above $100.

USD/INR hits a fresh 10-day high at 95.47 as oil extends its rally on intact US–Iran tensions. RBI still intervening in spot and NDF; FCNR mobilisation stamped at $136.38bn.