NY Fed August SCE: mean unemployment expectations rise to 44.4%, highest since April 2020. One-year inflation expectations hold at 3.6%; three-year edges to 3.2%; gas price expectations jump to 4.6%.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data released the August 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations on September 8, 2026, showing medium-term inflation expectations ticking down while unemployment expectations deteriorated, per the NY Fed press release. The survey was fielded from August 3 through August 31, 2026. Summary stamps also appear on the SCE hub.
Median inflation expectations at the one-year and five-year-ahead horizons were unchanged at 3.6% and 3.0%, while they decreased at the three-year-ahead horizon by 0.1 percentage point to 3.2%. Among commodities, median year-ahead expected price changes for gas increased by 1.7 percentage points to 4.6%.
Mean unemployment expectations — the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now — increased by 1.6 percentage points to 44.4%, its highest reading since April 2020. The increase was broad-based across age, education, and income groups.
The mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost decreased by 0.8 percentage point to 45.4%. The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months decreased by 0.4 percentage point to 13.8%, its lowest reading since February 2026.
Perceptions and expectations about households’ financial situations both deteriorated, with larger shares reporting a worse financial situation versus a year ago and expecting a worse situation a year ahead. Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago declined, with the net share of households reporting it is harder to get credit increasing; expectations for future credit availability also deteriorated.
August NFP is the jobs print. Gold below $4,400 carries Fed-hike color.
Informational only. Not trading advice, signals, or a guarantee of any market outcome.
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