GBP/USD fell to 1.3482 on the hot NFP print, then rebounded to around 1.3512 as traders weighed Fed hike odds and BoE Pill color.
GBP/USD recovers part of its initial drop on Friday after stronger-than-expected US employment data briefly lifts the US Dollar. The pair fell to an intraday low of 1.3482 immediately after the release before rebounding. At the time of writing, GBP/USD trades around 1.3512. That is the Friday 4 September 2026 stamp. The earlier Bailey GBP pullback stays a separate tape.
US Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 162K in August, almost three times the market forecast of 56K on that page — the same print on our live NFP PRINT. Primary consensus consensus for the same Non-Farm slot was +55K; both consensus stamps are quoted separately and are not averaged. July’s reading was revised to a gain of 21K from the previously reported 23K decline. The Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.1%.
The Dollar Index trades around 99.11 after rising as high as 99.39 in response to the employment report, but holds above the more-than-one-week low of 98.83 touched on Thursday. The short-lived decline in GBP/USD suggests traders are not fully convinced that stronger payrolls alone secure a Fed hike this month — next week’s CPI and PPI remain crucial on that page. CME FedWatch now sees around a 60% chance of a 25-basis-point increase at the 15–16 September meeting, up from roughly 50% before the NFP release.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday that he is “finally seeing some signs of disinflation” and that the current interest-rate setting could bring inflation back to the Fed’s 2% target — while adding he would consider a September hike if August inflation comes in hot. On the UK side, hawkish remarks from BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill provide some support to sterling: Pill reiterated his preference for raising Bank Rate to 4%, although markets largely expect the BoE to leave rates unchanged at 3.75% later this month.
GBP/USD’s Labor Day climb to 1.3541 is a separate thin-liquidity tape — distinct from this tanker / GBP-JPY / earlier Cable note. Hormuz is not reopened.
Informational only. Not trading advice, signals, or a guarantee of any market outcome.
Written and fact-checked with AI assistance, reviewed by a human editor before publication.
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