Claimant −11k vs +11.2k. UE at 4.9% Still Caps Cable Into CPI.

GBP/USD is around 1.3539 on Wednesday, off Monday’s three-month high near 1.3570. The UK labour file printed mixed. Claimant count fell. Unemployment did not. Wednesday’s CPI stamp will overwrite this tape.

This replaces the Tuesday setup. Those rows were consensus. These are actuals.

Claimant surprised. The jobs file did not.

ONS, 18 August: claimant count −11.0 thousand against the locked consensus of +11.2 thousand. The prior was revised to −6.4 thousand from the +6.7 thousand the setup used. ILO unemployment for April–June stayed 4.9% against 4.8% expected. Average earnings including bonus, three-month year-on-year, 4.1% against a 4.0% ForexFactory consensus; the prior was revised to 4.4%. Regular pay excluding bonus was 3.5%.

Vacancies for May–July were 707 thousand, down 6 thousand on the quarter, the weakest outside COVID since late 2014. PAYE employees fell 13 thousand in June, with a July flash also −13 thousand. Employment change was +83 thousand after +147 thousand, according to FXStreet.

The claimant drop is the offset. Unemployment stuck at 4.9%, plus cooler vacancies and a halved employment change, is the soft side.

Cable faded. CPI is still ahead.

FXStreet had cable at 1.3524 right after the print, then around 1.3539, a small loss in about a 35-pip range. That is not a two-percent move. It is a cap after Monday’s 1.3570 high.

UK CPI is still ahead at 11:30 IST. Consensus: headline 2.9% year-on-year against 2.6%; core 2.5% against 2.6%. Those are forecasts. They are not prints.

Live GBP/USD is on prices. The CPI stamp is on the economic calendar.

Informational only. Not trading advice, signals, or a guarantee of any market outcome.