Analysis23d ago
Analysis: The Liquidity Regime That Really Drives Risk Assets
Beyond headline rates, shifts in central-bank balance sheets and reserve balances are quietly steering the path of stocks and crypto alike.
Marcus Webb·1 min read
Analysis: What Past Halving Cycles Do and Don't Tell Us
Historical patterns around Bitcoin halvings are seductive, but sample size and a maturing market argue for humility in cycle forecasting.
A
Alex Rivera
FX and rates analyst covering G10 and emerging markets.
Jun 1, 2026 · 24d ago
1 min read2 views Bitcoin
What Past Halving Cycles Do and Don't Tell Us
Each Bitcoin halving spawns a wave of cycle-based price predictions. The history is intriguing — and easy to over-fit.
The Pattern
Prior cycles featured a supply shock followed by a delayed, powerful rally. But:
- The sample is tiny — only a handful of halvings exist.
- ETF-driven demand is a structural change with no historical analog.
- Macro liquidity conditions differ sharply from prior cycles.
A Sober Framework
Treat the halving as one input among many, not a deterministic clock.
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